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Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza

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  • Warwick McKibbin

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  • Alexandra Sidorenko

    ()

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy through a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century. An influenza pandemic would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force to different degrees in different countries due to a rise in mortality and illness; and increase in the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences away from exposed sectors; and a re-evaluation of country risk as investors observer the responses of governments. The paper finds that even a mild pandemic has significant consequences for global economic output. The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8% of GDP (approximately $US330 billion) in lost economic output. As the scale of the pandemic increases, so do the economic costs. A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the “ultra” scenario, with over 142.2 million people killed and a GDP loss of $US4.4 trillion. The composition of the slowdown differs sharply across countries with a major shift of global capital from the affected economies to the less affected safe haven economies of North America and Europe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2006-26.

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Length: 79 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2006-26

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Cited by:
  1. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 251, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Nigmatulina, Karima R. & Larson, Richard C., 2009. "Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 613-627, June.
  3. Marcus R. Keogh-Brown & Simon Wren-Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360.
  4. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  5. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
  6. Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  7. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
  8. Rodríguez, U-Primo E. & Garcia, Yolanda T. & Garcia, Arnulfo G. & Tan, Reynaldo L., 2. "Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 4(2).

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