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Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals

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Author Info

  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Miffre, Joëlle
  • Rallis, Georgios

Abstract

This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66%, respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when implemented individually. With an abnormal return of 21.02%, our double-sort strategy that exploits both momentum and term structure signals clearly outperforms the single-sort strategies. This double-sort strategy can additionally be utilized as a portfolio diversification tool. The abnormal performance of the combined portfolios cannot be explained by a lack of liquidity, data mining or transaction costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 2530-2548

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:2530-2548

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Commodity futures Momentum Term structure Double-sort strategy;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gay, Gerald D. & Lin, Chen-Miao & Smith, Stephen D., 2011. "Corporate derivatives use and the cost of equity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1491-1506, June.
  2. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
  3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
  4. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
  5. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris, 2013. "Do long-short speculators destabilize commodity futures markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 230-240.
  6. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 39903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Susan S Sharma, . "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Financial Econometics Series 2013_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  8. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2013. "The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation," CAMA Working Papers 2013-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Schuhmacher, Frank & Eling, Martin, 2011. "Sufficient conditions for expected utility to imply drawdown-based performance rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2311-2318, September.
  10. Basu, Devraj & Miffre, Joëlle, 2013. "Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2652-2664.
  11. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.

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