IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v46y2022ipbs154461232100386x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the time-varying dynamics of stock and commodity momentum returns

Author

Listed:
  • Stadtmüller, Immo
  • Auer, Benjamin R.
  • Schuhmacher, Frank

Abstract

Using a state-of-the-art Markov switching framework augmented by popular proxies of arbitrage activity and investor sentiment, we reexamine the dynamics of stock momentum returns and provide a first structured time-series analysis of commodity momentum portfolios. Our study arrives at the important finding that, in contrast to previous studies relying on restrictive static models, we cannot detect persuasive links between momentum returns and such variables in recent data. Consequently, the evolution of momentum returns remains puzzling. Furthermore, putting the behavior of extremes aside, stock and commodity momentum returns exhibit quite similar regime-switching behavior. This supports the frequent statement that the financialization of commodity futures markets has non-trivially linked stock and commodity returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the time-varying dynamics of stock and commodity momentum returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s154461232100386x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102385
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232100386X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102385?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Huseyin Gulen & Yuhang Xing & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Value versus Growth: Time‐Varying Expected Stock Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 381-407, June.
    3. Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2004. "Monetary policy, composite leading economic indicators and predicting the 2001 recession," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 463-477.
    4. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2015. "Combining momentum with reversal in commodity futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-444.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Kim, Dongcheol & Roh, Tai-Yong & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2014. "Time-varying expected momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-215.
    7. Adams, Zeno & Collot, Solène & Kartsakli, Maria, 2020. "Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    9. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    10. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Alberto G. Rossi, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Risk Underlying the Cross Section of Commodity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 619-641, February.
    11. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    12. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    14. Steven D. Baker, 2021. "The Financialization of Storable Commodities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 471-499, January.
    15. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    16. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    17. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    18. Haugen, Robert A. & Heins, A. James, 1975. "Risk and the Rate of Return on Financial Assets: Some Old Wine in New Bottles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 775-784, December.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    20. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, June.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    22. Wang, Changyun & Yu, Min, 2004. "Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1337-1361, June.
    23. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
    24. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    25. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    26. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    27. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    28. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    29. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    30. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    31. Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of commodity investments?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-150.
    32. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Volatility Spillovers Across Countries and Asset Classes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 333-354, February.
    33. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    34. Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
    35. Soosung Hwang & Alexandre Rubesam, 2015. "The disappearance of momentum," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 584-607, May.
    36. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    37. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    38. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Rallis, Georgios, 2010. "Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2530-2548, October.
    39. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    40. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ali, Sajid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty and investors sentiment predict commodities returns and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 208-218.
    41. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    42. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    43. Eling, Martin & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2007. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of hedge funds?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2632-2647, September.
    44. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    2. Gao, Ya & Guo, Bin & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Signed momentum in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 533-553, December.
    4. Sina Ehsani & Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2019. "Factor Momentum and the Momentum Factor," NBER Working Papers 25551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Zhu, Zhaobo & Duan, Xinrui & Sun, Licheng & Tu, Jun, 2019. "Momentum and reversal: The role of short selling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 95-110.
    6. Fangming Xu & Huainan Zhao & Liyi Zheng, 2022. "Investment momentum: A two‐dimensional behavioural strategy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1191-1207, January.
    7. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    8. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    9. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    11. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.
    12. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Chaonan Lin & Nien‐Tzu Yang & Robin K. Chou & Kuan‐Cheng Ko, 2022. "A timing momentum strategy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1339-1379, April.
    14. Zhang, Hanxiong & Auer, Benjamin R. & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2018. "Performance ranking (dis)similarities in commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 115-137.
    15. Docherty, Paul & Hurst, Gareth, 2018. "Return dispersion and conditional momentum returns: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 263-278.
    16. Baltzer, Markus & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2019. "Who trades on momentum?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 56-74.
    17. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    18. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    19. Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the benefits of active stock selection strategies for diversified investors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 342-354.
    20. Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Jensen, Gerald R. & Jensen, Tyler K., 2018. "Momentum and funding conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 312-329.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum investing; Regime-switching; Limits to arbitrage; Investor sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s154461232100386x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.