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Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-ninteenth century

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  • Bilge Erten

Abstract

Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century.

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File URL: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/papers/2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs in its series Working Papers with number 110.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:une:wpaper:110

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Web page: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/working-papers.html
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Keywords: Super-cycles; commodity prices; band-pass filters; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis;

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Cited by:
  1. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2014. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169726, Agricultural Economics Society.
  2. Barnebeck Andersen,Thomas & Barslund, Mikkel & Worm Hansen, Casper & Harr, Thomas & Sandholt Jensen, Peter, 2013. "How much did China’s WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," CEPS Papers 8471, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  3. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2014. "Testing the prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," OxCarre Working Papers 124, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650," IMF Working Papers 13/180, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz & César Vallejo Mejía & Edgar Caicedo García & Juan Sebastian Amador Torres & Evelyn Yohana Tique Calderón, 2012. "El mercado mundial del café y su impacto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
  7. David S. Jacks, 2013. "From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 18874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2012. "The Development Implications of External Integration in Latin America," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  10. Stuermer, Martin, 2013. "150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 51859, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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