This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Simon van Norden (Bank of Canada)
Huntley Schaller (Carleton University)
)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper, we use an extension of Hamilton's (1989) Markov switching techniques to describe and analyze stock market returns. Using new tests, we find very strong evidence of switching behaviour. A major innovation of our work is to use a multivariate specification which allows us to examine whether the price-dividend ratio has marginal predictive power for stock market returns after accounting for state-dependent switching. We find strong evidence of predictability. The response of returns to the past price-dividend ratio is strongly asymmetric - about four times larger in the low-return state than in the high-return state. A second innovation in our work is to allow the probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on economic variables.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/9502/9502002.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/em/papers/9502/9502002.ps.gz
File Format: application/postscript
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9502002.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502002

Note: 41 pages of text & 6 pages graphs. Text and Graphs in separate Postscript files. Both files compressed in a single Info-zip archive, then uuencoded.
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Graham Elliott & James H. Stock, 1992. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," NBER Technical Working Papers 0122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Goetzmann, William Nelson & Jorion, Philippe, 1993. " Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 663-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kim, Myung Jig & Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 515-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Matthew Richardson & James H. Stock, 1990. "Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. van Norden, Simon & Schaller, Huntley, 1993. "The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 505-10, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Schwert, G. William, 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 83-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 529-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. McQueen, Grant, 1992. "Long-Horizon Mean-Reverting Stock Prices Revisited," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 1-18, March. [Downloadable!]
  24. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Maghrebi Nabil, 2002. "Non-Linearities, Regime Switching and the Relationship Between Asian Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets ," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 121-139, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Akifumi Isogai & Satoru Kanoh & Toshifumi Tokunaga, 2004. "An Extension of the Markov-Switching Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities: Bull-Bear Analysis of the Japanese Stock Market," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-43, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "Choosing information variables for transition probabilities in a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model," Research Working Paper 98-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. Clara I. Gonzalez & Ricardo Gimeno, 2008. "Financial Analysts impact on Stock Volatility. A Study on the Pharmaceutical Sector," Working Papers 2008-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Documents de Travail 73, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  9. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. T.-W. Ho, 2003. "Regime-switching properties of the optimal seigniorage hypothesis: the case of Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 485-494, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Empirical investigation on the relationship between Japanese and Asian emerging equity markets," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 77-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Regime switching: Italian financial markets over a century," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 67-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. James Morley, 2000. "Is There a Positive Intertemporal Tradeoff Between Risk and Return After All?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0915, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. Chao, Hui-Ping, 1998. "Regime Switching In Us Livestock Cycles," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20824, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  16. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Gerald Kohers & Ninon Kohers & Theodor Kohers, 2006. "The risk and return characteristics of developed and emerging stock markets: the recent evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 737-743, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0011, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Eric Girardin & Zhenya Liu, 2003. "The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 57-70, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Data contributors to RePEc receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.