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Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century

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  • Spierdijk, Laura
  • Bikker, Jacob A.
  • van den Hoek, Pieter

Abstract

This paper analyzes mean reversion in the stock markets of 18 OECD countries during the years 1900–2009. In this period it takes stock prices about 18.5 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean reversion over time. The highest mean reversion speed is found for the period including the Great Depression and the start of World War II. Furthermore, the early years of the Cold War and the period containing the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Energy Crisis of 1979 and Black Monday in 1987 are also characterized by relatively fast mean reversion. We document half-lives ranging between 2.0 and 22.6 years. Our results suggest that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty, caused by major economic and political events.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 228-249

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:228-249

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Mean reversion; Stock prices; Panel unit root test; Market efficiency;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ahmet Sensoy & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2013. "How Much Random Does European Union Walk? A Time-Varying Long Memory Analysis," Working Paper 12, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul.
  2. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
  3. Laura Spierdijk & Jacob Bikker, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors," DNB Working Papers 343, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.

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