Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Helmut Herwartz
  • Leonardo Morales-Arias
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the in-sample and out-of-sample properties of stock return dynamics in 14 developed and 12 emerging markets. We start by formulating a theoretically founded asset-pricing model that decomposes log stock returns into equilibrium pricing factors (accounting and discount factors) and short-run (vector) autoregressive dynamics. Based on this model, we design both in-sample and out-of-sample panel modeling techniques to investigate international stock market returns at short and long horizons. Our findings show that (i) there is evidence of in-sample signaling from the equilibrium relations but this feature does not appear to translate into out-of-sample forecasting, (ii) a rolling window forecasting scheme can better approximate the distributional features of returns in comparison with a recursive method, (iii) forecasting with single-lagged equilibrium relationships does not play a uniformly significant role in anticipating returns, (iv) forecasting with a full model containing all lagged equilibrium relations can outperform both a random walk model and a VAR(1) model and (v) linear combinations of alternative forecasts reduce ex-ante uncertainty.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470802423338
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 1-28

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:15:y:2009:i:1:p:1-28

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20

    Related research

    Keywords: international asset pricing; dynamic heterogenous panels; out-of-sample forecasting; forecast combination;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Rengel, Malte & Herwartz, Helmut & Xu, Fang, 2013. "Persistence in the price-to-dividend ratio and its macroeconomic fundamentals," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79860, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, 01.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:15:y:2009:i:1:p:1-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.