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Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination

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  • Szakmary, Andrew C.
  • Shen, Qian
  • Sharma, Subhash C.
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the performance of trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures markets using a monthly dataset spanning 48Â years and 28 markets. We find that all parameterizations of the dual moving average crossover and channel strategies that we implement yield positive mean excess returns net of transactions costs in at least 22 of the 28 markets. When we pool our results across markets, we show that all of the trading rules earn hugely significant positive returns that prevail over most subperiods of the data as well. These results are robust with respect to the set of commodities the trading rules are implemented with, distributional assumptions, data-mining adjustments and transactions costs, and help resolve divergent evidence in the extant literature regarding the performance of momentum and pure trend-following strategies that is otherwise difficult to explain.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 409-426

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:409-426

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Trend-following Trading rules Momentum Commodity futures;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Gay, Gerald D. & Lin, Chen-Miao & Smith, Stephen D., 2011. "Corporate derivatives use and the cost of equity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1491-1506, June.
    2. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    3. Martin Scholtus & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "High-Frequency Technical Trading: The Importance of Speed," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-018/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Park, Young S. & Lee, Jaehyun, 2010. "Detecting insider trading: The theory and validation in Korea Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2110-2120, September.
    5. Martin Scholtus & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "High-Frequency Technical Trading: The Importance of Speed," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-018/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Basu, Devraj & Miffre, Joëlle, 2013. "Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2652-2664.
    7. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2014. "European Equity Investing through the Financial Crisis: Can Risk Parity, Momentum or Trend Following Help to Reduce Tail Risk?," Discussion Papers 14/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Rallis, Georgios, 2010. "Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2530-2548, October.
    9. Clare, Andrew & Seaton, James & Smith, Peter N. & Thomas, Stephen, 2014. "Trend following, risk parity and momentum in commodity futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Schuhmacher, Frank & Eling, Martin, 2012. "A decision-theoretic foundation for reward-to-risk performance measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2077-2082.
    11. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
    12. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2012. "BREAKING INTO THE BLACKBOX: Trend Following, Stop Losses, and the Frequency of Trading: the case of the S&P500," Discussion Papers 12/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Schuhmacher, Frank & Eling, Martin, 2011. "Sufficient conditions for expected utility to imply drawdown-based performance rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2311-2318, September.
    14. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Susan S Sharma, . "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Financial Econometics Series 2013_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    16. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N. Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2013. "The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation," CAMA Working Papers 2013-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Y. Lemp\'eri\`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.

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