This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Antonio E. Noriega
Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
We study the phenomenon of spurious regression between two random variables, when the generating mechanism of individual series is assumed to follow a stationary process around a trend with (possibly) multiple breaks in the level and slope of trend. We develop the relevant asymptotic theory and show that the phenomenon of spurious regression occurs independent of the structure assumed for the errors. In contrast to previous findings, the presence of a spurious relationship will be less severe when breaks are present in the generating mechanism of individual series. This is true whether the regression model includes a linear trend or not. Simulations confirm our asymptotic results, and reveal that in finite samples, the phenomenon of spurious regression is sensitive to the presence of a linear trend in the regression model and to the relative location of breaks within the sample. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis .
Volume (Year): 27 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 671-684
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:27:y:2006:i:5:p:671-684Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782
Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0143-9782
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997.
"Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 1998.
"Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
98-25, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Clive Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 1998.
"Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
1998-25, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!] Granger, Clive W J & Hyung, Namwon & Jeon, Yongil, 2001.
"Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series ,"
Applied Economics ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 899-904, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Richard Startz, 1998.
"Growth States and Shocks ,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
0064, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Richard Startz, 1998.
"Growth States and Shocks ,"
Working Papers
0064, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Startz, Richard, 1998.
" Growth States and Shocks ,"
Journal of Economic Growth ,
Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 203-15, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bai, Jushan, 1997.
"Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time ,"
Econometric Theory ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Durlauf, Steven N, 1993.
"Nonergodic Economic Growth ,"
Review of Economic Studies ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 349-66, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Entorf, Horst, 1997.
"Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Kim, Tae-Hwan & Lee, Young-Sook & Newbold, Paul, 2004.
"Spurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trends ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 257-262, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kejak, Michal, 2003.
"Stages of growth in economic development ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 771-800, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
Other versions:
Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!] Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997.
"Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1995.
"The Great War, The Great Crash and Steady State Growth: Some New Evidence an Old Stylized Fact ,"
Papers
36-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1995.
"Testing for a Break in Output: New International Evidence ,"
Oxford Economic Papers ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 357-62, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000.
"The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Raj, Baldev, 1992.
"International Evidence on Persistence in Output in the Presence of an Episodic Change ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 281-93, July-Sept.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001.
"Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches ,"
Economic Modelling ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity ,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives ,
American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998.
"Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cooper, Russell, 1994.
"Equilibrium Selection in Imperfectly Competitive Economies with Multiple Equilibria ,"
Economic Journal ,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1106-22, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Duck, N W, 1992.
"UK Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions ,"
Oxford Economic Papers ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 426-39, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974.
"Spurious regressions in econometrics ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
Marmol, Francesc, 1998.
"Spurious regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processes ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 233-250, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005.
"Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995.
"The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, .
"Spurious Regression and Trending Variables ,"
School of Economics Working Papers
EM200701, Universidad de Guanajuato.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, .
"Inflation and breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test ,"
School of Economics Working Papers
EM200601, Universidad de Guanajuato.
[Downloadable!]
Travaglini, Guido, 2008.
"Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes ,"
MPRA Paper
7108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, .
"Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends ,"
School of Economics Working Papers
EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato.
[Downloadable!]
Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2008.
"Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Efficient (HAE) Estimation and Pivots for Jointly Evolving Series ,"
Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series
dp2008-15, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? The RePEc project started in 1997. Its precursor, NetEc, dates back to 1993.
This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .