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Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity

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  • Antonio E. Noriega
  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

Abstract

We study the phenomenon of spurious regression between two random variables, when the generating mechanism of individual series is assumed to follow a stationary process around a trend with (possibly) multiple breaks in the level and slope of trend. We develop the relevant asymptotic theory and show that the phenomenon of spurious regression occurs independent of the structure assumed for the errors. In contrast to previous findings, the presence of a spurious relationship will be less severe when breaks are present in the generating mechanism of individual series. This is true whether the regression model includes a linear trend or not. Simulations confirm our asymptotic results, and reveal that in finite samples, the phenomenon of spurious regression is sensitive to the presence of a linear trend in the regression model and to the relative location of breaks within the sample. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.

Volume (Year): 27 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 671-684

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:27:y:2006:i:5:p:671-684

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, 06.
  2. Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Inflation and breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200601, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," CREATES Research Papers 2011-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Granger, Clive W.J., 2012. "Useful conclusions from surprising results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 142-146.
  5. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2012. "The effect of structural breaks on the Engle-Granger test for cointegration," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 99-132.
  6. Hrishikesh D. Vinod, 2008. "Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Efficient (HAE) Estimation and Pivots for Jointly Evolving Series," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-15, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  7. Antonio E. Noriega & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato, 2006. "Spurious regression and econometric trends," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Travaglini, Guido, 2008. "Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes," MPRA Paper 7108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2006-12, Banco de México.
  11. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2005. "Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
  12. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  13. Manuel Gómez Zaldivar & Oscar Manjarrez Castro & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Regresión espuria en especificaciones dinámicas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 1-20, May.
  14. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
  15. Jin, Hao & Zhang, Jinsuo & Zhang, Si & Yu, Cong, 2013. "The spurious regression of AR(p) infinite-variance sequence in the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.

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