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Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes

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Author Info
Travaglini, Guido

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Abstract

In this paper I propose a nonstandard t-test statistic for detecting level and trend breaks of I(0) series. Theoretical and limit-distribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation are supplied. The null hypothesis of anthropogenic versus natural causes of global warming is then tested for the period 1850-2006 by means of a dynamic GMM model which incorporates the null of breaks of anthropogenic origin. World average temperatures are found to be tapering off since a few decades by now, and to exhibit no significant breaks attributable to human activities. While these play a minor causative role in climate changes, most natural forcings and in particular solar sunspots are major warmers. Finally, in contrast to widely held opinions, greenhouse gases are in general temperature dimmers.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7108.

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Date of creation: 11 Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7108

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Related research
Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments Multiple Breaks Principal Component Analysis Global Warming.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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  2. Ravn, Morten O. & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-69, October.
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  9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  14. Koenker, Roger & Machado, Jose A. F., 1999. "GMM inference when the number of moment conditions is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 327-344, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
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  20. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1-2), pages 65-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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