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Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Travaglini, Guido
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In this paper I propose a nonstandard t-test statistic for detecting level and trend breaks of I(0) series. Theoretical and limit-distribution critical values obtained from Montecarlo experimentation are supplied. The null hypothesis of anthropogenic versus natural causes of global warming is then tested for the period 1850-2006 by means of a dynamic GMM model which incorporates the null of breaks of anthropogenic origin. World average temperatures are found to be tapering off since a few decades by now, and to exhibit no significant breaks attributable to human activities. While these play a minor causative role in climate changes, most natural forcings and in particular solar sunspots are major warmers. Finally, in contrast to widely held opinions, greenhouse gases are in general temperature dimmers.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
7108.
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Date of creation: 11 Feb 2008Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7108Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219 Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900 Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Generalized Method of Moments Multiple Breaks Principal Component Analysis Global Warming. Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
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