IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-02-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment on the Indonesian Economy: A Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Arintoko

    (Department of Economics and Development Study, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia)

  • Insukindro

    (Depatrment of Economics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta and Bank Indonesia Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia.)

Abstract

This study develops macroeconomic models that involves the output gap, the level of prices, interest rates, exchange rates, current account, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment. The modeling adapts to the characteristics of the data, the perspective of a new macroeconomic theories that are relevant to the conditions in Indonesia, and the appropriate methodology used structural cointegrating vector autoregression. The test results indicate the presence of four significant cointegrations and affect change in macroeconomic variables that are endogenous. The four cointegrations are output gap, price, interest rates and exchange rates cointegration. The long-term relationships indicate that exchange rates cointegrated against the output gap, price, interest rate on the one hand and cointegrated by the interest rate, current account and foreign direct investment on the other. The exchange rate has a relationship with key macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. Taking into account the increasing globalization of economic and financial, policy of inflation targeting in Indonesia should be consistent in giving more attention to exchange rates and financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Arintoko & Insukindro, 2017. "Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment on the Indonesian Economy: A Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 682-691.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-89
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/4253/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4253
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & John D. Tsoukalas, 2010. "Money and Information in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages 101-128, February.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    5. R. N. Agarwal, 1997. "Foreign Portfolio Investment In Some Developing Countries: A Study of Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 217-229, July.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    7. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    8. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Monetary policy in the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(6), pages 863-884, November.
    9. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy," IMF Working Papers 2011/028, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 2004. "Estimation of the J-Curve in China," Economics Study Area Working Papers 67, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:26:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
    15. Baek, Jungho & Mulik, Kranti & Koo, Won W., 2006. "The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21382, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Chakraborty, Chandana & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2006. "Economic reforms, foreign direct investment and its economic effects in India," Kiel Working Papers 1272, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    4. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2016. "Global food prices and monetary policy in an emerging market economy: The case of India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-70.
    5. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert, 2016. "Implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes: the case of Turkey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1553-1580.
    6. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    7. Fisayo Fagbemi & Tolulope T. Osinubi, 2020. "Leveraging Foreign Direct Investment for Sustainability: An Approach to Sustainable Human Development in Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/090, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006-19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Financial Stability Analysis," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 3, pages 32-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Chu, Amanda M.Y. & Lv, Zhihui & Wagner, Niklas F. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear growth determinants: The case of Mongolia and its connection to China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Mohammad Sharif Karimi & Andrzej Cieslik, 2017. "Foreign Knowledge Spillovers and Total Factor Productivity Growth: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(2), pages 267-299, Spring.
    12. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    13. Akintoye V. Adejumo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Green Growth in Nigeria: Any Spillovers?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/078, African Governance and Development Institute..
    14. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    15. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    16. Jun, Sangjoon, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70, March.
    17. Hemachandra Padhan & Deepak Kumar Behera & Santosh Kumar Sahu & Umakant Dash, 2023. "Does Corruption Hinderance Economic Growth Despite Surge of Remittance and Capital Inflows Since Economic Liberalization in an Emerging Economy, India," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 426-449, March.
    18. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert, 2016. "Implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes: the case of Turkey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(6), pages 1553-1580.
    19. Bibhuti Sarker & Farid Khan, 2020. "Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Benlialper, Ahmet & Cömert, Hasan & Öcal, Nadir, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate policy in inflation targeting developing countries," IPE Working Papers 86/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term Relationships; Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression; Inflation Targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.