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The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Mulik, Kranti
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

This study examines the J-curve phenomenon for the U.S. agricultural trade and compares the effect on agricultural trade relative to the U.S. non-agricultural trade. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to estimate bilateral trade data between the U.S. and her three major trading partners ¦¡ Japan, Canada and Mexico. We find little evidence of the J-curve for the U.S. agricultural trade with Japan, Canada and Mexico. For the non-agricultural trade, on the other hand, the behavior of the U.S. trade with industrialized economies such as Japan and Canada follows the J-curve, but not with developing economies such as Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Mulik, Kranti & Koo, Won W., 2006. "The J-Curve Phenomenon: Myth or Reality?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21382, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21382
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghiba, Nicolae, 2010. "Implicații ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra schimburilor comerciale internaționale (cazul Romaniei) [Implications of exchange rate volatility on international trade (The case of Romania)," MPRA Paper 28453, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jan 2011.
    2. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai, Ph.D., 2015. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 27(1), pages 17-36, April.
    3. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 106701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai Ph.D., 2015. "Devaluation and Testing the J-curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Working Paper 27/2015, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    5. Arintoko & Insukindro, 2017. "Effect of Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment on the Indonesian Economy: A Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 682-691.
    6. Mahesh Kumar Chaulagai Ph.D., 2015. "Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 27(1), pages 17-36, April.

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