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Price discovery in the small and in the large: Momentum and reversal, bubbles, and crashes

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  • Kedar-Levy, Haim

Abstract

Using a discrete-time asset-pricing model, I specify the economic rationale for a rich array of price dynamics. Two boundedly-rational investors with different risk preferences trade periodically, where excess supply is cleared by a tâtonnement process. Cast at the core of asset-pricing modeling, this structure allows me to explore price discovery intra-periodically, and over time. If dividends are observable, the price converges to Merton's ICAPM, but if investors rely on past realizations, momentum and reversal patterns emerge, which might escalate to bubbles and crashes. The model features increasing volume but declining liquidity during positive bubbles, and lowest liquidity after negative bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2020. "Price discovery in the small and in the large: Momentum and reversal, bubbles, and crashes," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:48:y:2020:i:c:s1386418118302428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2019.08.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price discovery; Bubble; Crash; Momentum; Reversal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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