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Testing for common deterministic trend slopes

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  • Vogelsang, Timothy J.
  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

We propose tests for hypotheses on the parameter for deterministic trends. The model framework assumes a multivarariat stucture for trend-stationary time series variables. We derive the asymptotic theory and provide some relevant critical values. Monte Carlo simulations suggest which tests are more useful in practice than others. We apply our tests to examine if monthly temperatures in the Netherlands, measured from 1706 onwards, have a trend and if these trends are the same across months. We find that the January and March temperatures have the same upward trend, that the September temperature has decreased and that the temperatures in the other months do not have a trend. Hence, only winters in the Netherlands seem to get warmer.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 126 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 1-24

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:126:y:2005:i:1:p:1-24

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Using Bandwidth Equal To Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1350-1366, December.
  3. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
  7. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2001. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Standard Errors Using the Bartlett Kernel without Truncation," Working Papers 01-13, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  9. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
  10. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  12. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  13. Fomby, Tom & Vogelsang, Tim, 2000. "The Application of Size Robust Trend Analysis to Global Warming Temperature Series," Working Papers 00-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  14. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
  15. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Timothy J. Vogelsang & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 49-62.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ross McKitrick & Timothy Vogelsang, 2011. "Multivariate trend comparisons between autocorrelated climate series with general trend regressors," Working Papers, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance 1109, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Yonghui Zhang & Liangjun Su & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2011. "Testing for Common Trends in Semiparametric Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1832, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
  4. Antonio E. Noriega & Luis M. Soria & Ramón Velázquez, 2008. "International Evidence on Stochastic and Deterministic Monetary Neutrality," Working Papers 2008-04, Banco de México.
  5. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
  6. Sun, Yixiao, 2011. "Robust trend inference with series variance estimator and testing-optimal smoothing parameter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 345-366, October.
  7. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "Tests for Multiple Breaks in the Trend with Stationary or Integrated Shocks," Insper Working Papers, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa wpe_290, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  8. H. Peter Boswijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2007. "Estimating Deterministic Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-020, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  10. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  11. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society 57, Econometric Society.

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