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Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non-stationary Volatility

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  • Ke-Li Xu
  • Jui-Chung Yang

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="sjos12095-abs-0001"> In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non-stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt-type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non-parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt-type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non-stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non-parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data-dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non-stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non-stationary volatility. Finite-sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.

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  • Ke-Li Xu & Jui-Chung Yang, 2015. "Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non-stationary Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 63-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:42:y:2015:i:1:p:63-86
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