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Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances

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  • Xu, Ke-Li
  • Phillips, Peter C.B.

Abstract

Stable autoregressive models of known finite order are considered with martingale differences errors scaled by an unknown nonparametric time-varying function generating heterogeneity. An important special case involves structural change in the error variance, but in most practical cases the pattern of variance change over time is unknown and may involve shifts at unknown discrete points in time, continuous evolution or combinations of the two. This paper develops kernel-based estimators of the residual variances and associated adaptive least squares (ALS) estimators of the autoregressive coefficients. These are shown to be asymptotically efficient, having the same limit distribution as the infeasible generalized least squares (GLS). Comparisons of the efficient procedure and ordinary least squares (OLS) reveal that least squares can be extremely inefficient in some cases while nearly optimal in others. Simulations show that, when least squares work well, the adaptive estimators perform comparably well, whereas when least squares work poorly, major efficiency gains are achieved by the new estimators.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 142 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 265-280

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:142:y:2008:i:1:p:265-280

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Patilea, V. & Raïssi, H., 2013. "Corrected portmanteau tests for VAR models with time-varying variance," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 190-207.
  2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," Discussion Papers 08-34, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2011. "Tilted Nonparametric Estimation of Volatility Functions With Empirical Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 518-528.
  4. Xu Cheng & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1688, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Xu, Ke-Li, 2008. "Testing against nonstationary volatility in time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 288-292, December.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Ke-Li Xu, 2007. "Tilted Nonparametric Estimation of Volatility Functions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1612, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.
  7. Chandler, Gabriel, 2010. "Order selection for heteroscedastic autoregression: A study on concentration," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1904-1910, December.
  8. Dabo-Niang, Sophie & Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Combining parametric and nonparametric approaches for more efficient time series prediction," MPRA Paper 16893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
  10. Diks, C.G.H. & Papana, A. & Kyrtsou, K. & Kugiumtzis, D., 2013. "Partial Symbolic Transfer Entropy," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-16, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  11. Xu, Ke-Li, 2013. "Power monotonicity in detecting volatility levels change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 64-69.
  12. Brendan K. Beare, 2008. "Unit Root Testing with Unstable Volatility," Economics Papers 2008-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Sophie DABO-NIANG & Christian FRANCQ & Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN, 2009. "Combining Nonparametric and Optimal Linear Time Series Predictions," Working Papers 2009-18, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  14. Jarrow, Robert & Teo, Melvyn & Tse, Yiu Kuen & Warachka, Mitch, 2012. "An improved test for statistical arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 47-80.

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