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Varying coefficient GARCH versus local constant volatility modeling. Comparison of the predictive power

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  • Jörg Polzehl
  • Vladimir Spokoiny
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    Abstract

    GARCH models are widely used in financial econometrics. However, we show by mean of a simple simulation example that the GARCH approach may lead to a serious model misspecification if the assumption of stationarity is violated. In particular, the well known integrated GARCH effect can be explained by nonstationarity of the time series. We then introduce a more general class of GARCH models with time varying coefficients and present an adaptive procedure which can estimate the GARCH coefficients as a function of time. We also discuss a simpler semiparametric model in which the beta-parameter is fixed. Finally we compare the performance of the parametric, time varying nonparametric and semiparametric GARCH(1,1) models and the locally constant model from Polzehl and Spokoiny (2002) by means of simulated and real data sets using different forecasting criteria. Our results indicate that the simple locally constant model outperforms the other models in almost all cases. The GARCH(1,1) model also demonstrates a relatively good forecasting performance as far as the short term forecasting horizon is considered. However, its application to long term forecasting seems questionable because of possible misspecification of the model parameters.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2006-033.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-033.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-033

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    Keywords: varying coefficient GARCH; adaptive weights;

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    References

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    1. Peng, Liang & Yao, Qiwei, 2003. "Least absolute deviations estimation for ARCH and GARCH models," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    3. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
    4. Liang Peng, 2003. "Least absolute deviations estimation for ARCH and GARCH models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 967-975, December.
    5. Berkes, Istv n & Horv th, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2003. "Estimation Of The Maximal Moment Exponent Of A Garch(1,1) Sequence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 565-586, August.
    6. Giraitis, Liudas & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Whittle estimation of ARCH models," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
    7. Liudas Giraitis & Peter M Robinson, 2000. "Whittle Estimation of ARCH Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/406, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    10. Jianqing Fan & Juan Gu, 2003. "Semiparametric estimation of Value at Risk," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 261-290, December.
    11. Giraitis, Liudas & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Whittle Estimation Of Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 608-631, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.

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