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Fundamentos del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile

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Author Info
Rodrigo Cerda () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)
Alvaro Donoso
Aldo Lema

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Abstract

Un modelo basado en la relación gasto-producto (efecto Salter-Swan) y los términos de intercambio, habría predicho un incremento más pronunciado del tipo de cambio real (TCR) en Chile durante la segunda mitad de los ’80, una caída menos acentuada entre 1990 y 1997, y un aumento más fuerte a partir de 1998 cuando irrumpió la crisis financiera internacional. Este trabajo incorpora en forma exhaustiva otros factores en la determinación de largo plazo del TCR, tanto de oferta como de demanda. Usando una definición de TCR construida con una mejor aproximación a precios de transables que la implícita en estudios previos, se confirma la influencia negativa de la relación gasto-producto y de los términos de intercambio, pero además se encuentra evidencia robusta de la presencia del efecto Balassa-Samuelson. En contraste, se descarta la existencia de un impacto negativo del gasto público sobre el TCR, en añadidura al recogido en el efecto Salter-Swan. Se encuentra que el efecto de esta última variable difiere según la composición sectorial de la producción (tamaño relativo del sector transable) y niveles de desempleo.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 244.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published as "Análisis del Tipo de Cambio Real: Chile 1986-1999", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 42, Nº 126, pp. 329-356, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:244

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Related research
Keywords: Tipo de Cambio Real; Fundamentales; Productividad; Chile; Efecto Balassa-Samuelson; Efecto Salter-Swan.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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    Other versions:
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  5. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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  8. Patricio Arrau & Jorge Quiroz & Rómulo Chumacero, 1992. "Ahorro Fiscal y Tipo de Cambio Real," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(88), pages 349-386. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1989. "Macroeconomic policies for structural adjustment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 247, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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