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The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

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Author Info
David A. Jaeger
M. Daniele Paserman

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Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the Second Intifada. Using data on the daily number of fatalities between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of Granger causality from Palestinian to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent using either the incidence or level of fatalities and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find no evidence that the Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in a predictable "tit-for-tat" cycle of violence. (JEL D74, H56, O17)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/aer.98.4.1591
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1591-1604
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:98:y:2008:i:4:p:1591-1604

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kydd, Andrew F. & Walter, Barbara, 2002. "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 263-296, April. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2004. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers 859, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Eli Berman, 2003. "Hamas, Taliban and the Jewish Underground: An Economist's View of Radical Religious Militias," NBER Working Papers 10004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alberto Abadíe & Javier Gardeazábal, 2005. "Terrorism and the World Economy," DFAEII Working Papers 200519, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andrew Kydd & Barbara F. Walter, 2002. "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Claude Berrebi, 2003. "Evidence About the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism Among Palestinians," Working Papers 856, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sami H. Miaari & Robert M. Sauer, 2006. "The Labor Market Costs of Conflict: Closures, Foreign Workers, and Palestinian Employment and Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 2282, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2006. "Israel, the Palestinian Factions, and the Cycle of Violence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 45-49, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation Publications Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthew A. Hanson & Martin B. Schmidt, 2007. "The Impact of Coalition Offensive Operations on the Iraqi Insurgency," Working Papers 56, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary. [Downloadable!]
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