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The struggle for Palestinian hearts and minds: Violence and public opinion in the Second Intifada

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Author Info

  • M. Daniele Paserman

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University, NBER, CEPR and IZA)

  • Esteban F. Klor

    (Department of Economics, Hebrew University and CEPR)

  • Sami H. Miaari

    ()
    (University of Haifa and DIW)

  • David A. Jaeger

    ()
    (City University of New York Graduate Center, USA, and University of Cologne, Germany)

Abstract

This paper examines how violence influences the political preferences of an aggrieved constituency that is purportedly represented by militant factions. Using longitudinal public opinion poll micro data of the Palestinian population linked to data on fatalities from the Second Intifada, we find that although local Israeli violence discourages Palestinians from supporting moderate political positions, this “radicalization” is fleeting, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We do, however, find evidence suggesting that collateral violence affecting Palestinian civilians has a stronger effect on the populations' political preferences relative to individuals directly targeted by the Israeli military. In addition, we observe that major political events in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict have had a longer-term impact on political preferences. Individuals who were teenagers during the period of the Oslo negotiations tend to have relatively moderate preferences, while those who were teenagers during the First Intifada tend to be relatively radical.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2011-047.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2011-047

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References

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser, 2002. "The Political Economy of Hatred," NBER Working Papers 9171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2010. "Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions," NBER Working Papers 16493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2004. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers 859, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  4. Eli Berman & David D. Laitin, 2008. "Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model," NBER Working Papers 13725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sendhil Mullainathan & Ebonya Washington, 2006. "Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance and Voting," NBER Working Papers 11910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Radha Iyengar & Jonathan Monten, 2008. "Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 13839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pierre Yared & Gerard Padro i Miquel, 2010. "The Political Economy of Indirect Control," 2010 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, Daniele, 2007. "The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 2890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510, November.
  11. Jaeger, David A & Paserman, Marco Daniele, 2006. "Israel, the Palestinian Factions and the Cycle of Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  13. M. Daniele Paserman & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari, 2011. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-046, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  14. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2009. "The Shape of Things to Come? On the Dynamics of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," International Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 315-342, December.
  15. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, Daniele, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," IZA Discussion Papers 1808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
  17. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  18. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2010. "Suicide Terrorism And The Backlash Effect," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5-6), pages 443-457.
  19. Kydd, Andrew & Walter, Barbara F., 2002. "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 263-296, March.
  20. Dmitri Romanov & Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2012. "Does Terrorism Demoralize? Evidence from Israel," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(313), pages 183-198, 01.
  21. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  22. Gerard Padró i Miquel & Pierre Yared, 2010. "The Political Economy of Indirect Control," NBER Working Papers 15748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 16320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sandeep Baliga & Tomas Sjostrom, 2009. "The Strategy of Manipulating Conflict," Departmental Working Papers 200906, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. David A. Jaeger & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & M. Daniele Paserman, 2010. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," NBER Working Papers 16475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2009. "The Economic Cost of Harboring Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 15465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Malečková Jitka & Stanišić Dragana, 2013. "Does Higher Education Decrease Support for Terrorism?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 343-358, December.
  6. Guy Grossman & Devorah Manekin & Dan Miodownik, 2013. "The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes towards war and peace amongst Israeli ex-combatants," HiCN Working Papers 161, Households in Conflict Network.
  7. El-Attar, Mayssun, 2009. "Could Education Promote the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process?," IZA Discussion Papers 4447, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2011. "Does Harboring Terrorists Have Economic Costs?," EUSECON Policy Briefing 12, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2009. "Does Terrorism Work?," HiCN Working Papers 67, Households in Conflict Network.
  10. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.

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