Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate
AbstractThis paper relies on the variation of terror attacks across time and space as an instrument to identify the causal effects of terrorism on the preferences of the Israeli electorate. The authors find that the occurrence of a terror attack within three months of the elections is associated with a 1.35 percentage points increase on the local support for the right bloc of political parties out of the two blocs vote. This effect is of a significant political magnitude given the level of terrorism in Israel and the fact that its electorate is closely split between the right and left blocs. Moreover, a terror fatality has important electoral effects beyond the locality where the attack is perpetrated, and their electoral impact is stronger the closer to the elections they occur. Interestingly, the observed political effects are not affected by the identity of the party holding office. These results provide empirical support for the hypothesis that the electorate shows a highly sensitive reaction to terrorism, and substantiate the claim that terror organizations especially target democratic regimes because these regimes are more prone to make territorial concessions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by RAND Corporation Publications Department in its series Working Papers with number 477-1.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
terrorism; democracy; voters' preferences;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
- N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2008-06-21 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-2008-06-21 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2008.
"The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1591-1604, September.
- Jaeger, David A & Paserman, Marco Daniele, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 5320, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," Working Papers 22, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, Daniele, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," IZA Discussion Papers 1808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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