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The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada

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  • Jaeger, David A
  • Klor, Esteban F
  • Miaari, Sami
  • Paserman, Marco Daniele

Abstract

This paper examines how violence in the Second Intifada influences Palestinian public opinion. Using micro data from a series of opinion polls linked to data on fatalities, we find that Israeli violence against Palestinians leads them to support more radical factions and more radical attitudes towards the conflict. This effect is temporary, however, and vanishes completely within 90 days. We also find some evidence that Palestinian fatalities lead to the polarization of the population and to increased disaffection and a lack of support for any faction. Geographically proximate Palestinian fatalities have a larger effect than those that are distant, while Palestinian fatalities in targeted killings have a smaller effect relative to other fatalities. Although overall Israeli fatalities do not seem to affect Palestinian public opinion, when we divide those fatalities by the different factions claiming responsibility for them, we find some evidence that increased Israeli fatalities are effective in increasing support for the faction that claimed them.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6793.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6793

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Keywords: Israeli Fatalities; Israeli-Palestinian Conflict; Palestinian Fatalities; Palestinian Public Opinion;

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References

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  1. Mullainathan, Sendhil & Washington, Ebonya, 2007. "Sticking with Your Vote: Cognitive Dissonance Voting," Working Papers 14, Yale University, Department of Economics.
  2. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Political Economy of Hatred," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 45-86, January.
  3. David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2006. "Israel, the Palestinian Factions, and the Cycle of Violence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 45-49, May.
  4. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510, November.
  5. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2009. "The Shape of Things to Come? On the Dynamics of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," International Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 315-342, December.
  6. Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2004. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Working Papers 859, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  7. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
  8. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, Daniele, 2005. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict," IZA Discussion Papers 1808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, Daniele, 2007. "The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 2890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  12. Berman, Eli & Laitin, David D., 2008. "Religion, terrorism and public goods: Testing the club model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 1942-1967, October.
  13. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
  14. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  15. Radha Iyengar & Jonathan Monten, 2008. "Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 13839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Kydd, Andrew & Walter, Barbara F., 2002. "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 263-296, March.
  17. M. Daniele Paserman & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari, 2011. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-046, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  18. Gerard Padró i Miquel & Pierre Yared, 2010. "The Political Economy of Indirect Control," NBER Working Papers 15748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban Klor, 2010. "Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions," NBER Working Papers 16493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. B. Peter Rosendorff & Todd Sandler, 2010. "Suicide Terrorism And The Backlash Effect," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5-6), pages 443-457.
  21. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  22. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2011. "Does Harboring Terrorists Have Economic Costs?," EUSECON Policy Briefing 12, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Eric D. Gould & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "Does Terrorism Work?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1459-1510, November.
  3. Malečková Jitka & Stanišić Dragana, 2013. "Does Higher Education Decrease Support for Terrorism?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 343-358, December.
  4. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
  5. Efraim Benmelech & Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2010. "The Economic Cost of Harboring Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 331-353, April.
  6. Sandeep Baliga & Tomas Sjostrom, 2009. "The Strategy of Manipulating Conflict," Departmental Working Papers 200906, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. Guy Grossman & Devorah Manekin & Dan Miodownik, 2013. "The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes towards war and peace amongst Israeli ex-combatants," HiCN Working Papers 161, Households in Conflict Network.
  8. Benmelech, Efraim & Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2010. "Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism," CEPR Discussion Papers 7995, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. David A. Jaeger & Esteban F. Klor & Sami H. Miaari & M. Daniele Paserman, 2010. "Can Militants Use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada," NBER Working Papers 16475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. El-Attar, Mayssun, 2009. "Could Education Promote the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process?," IZA Discussion Papers 4447, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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