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Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy

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  • Raphael Bergoeing

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  • Raimundo Soto

Abstract

RBC models have been successfull when applied to developed economies: their abilities in replicating the data of emerging countries remain largely unexplored. The rapid but unstable growth process in developing countries and their relatively less developed market structure pose a formidable challenge to neoclessical general equilibrium models. Using data of the Chilean economy, we explore the effect of market rigidities and macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of consumption, investment, inflation and factor markets. We find that business cycles models replicate much of the observed fluctuations of real and monetary variables in the Chilean economy, depite its idiosyncratic economic structure. Using a calibrated model we find that technology shocks, fiscal policies and labor market rigidities are the main sources of economic cycles, while monetary policies and wage indexation play a minor role. Econometric tests support the use of our calibrated model as an adequate representation of the Chilean data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 126.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:126

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  1. Hofman, Andre A, 2000. "Standardised Capital Stock Estimates in Latin America: A 1950-94 Update," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 45-86, January.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 3556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  4. Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1991. "Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations," Staff Report 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  8. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  9. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  10. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
  11. Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1988. "Involuntary unemployment in economies with efficient risk sharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 501-515.
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Cited by:
  1. Péter Benczúr & Attila Rátfai, 2005. "Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe - the Facts," MNB Working Papers 2005/02, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morande, 2004. "Labor Market Distortions, Employment and Growth: The Recent Chilean Experience," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 125, Econometric Society.
  3. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Crecimiento, empleo e impuestos al trabajo: Chile 1998-2001," Documentos de Trabajo 127, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  4. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283.
  5. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2006. "Unemployment Insurance in Chile: Does it Stabilize the Business Cycle?," Working Papers 17, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised May 2007.
  6. Raphael Bergoeing & Facundo Piguillem, 2003. "Innovaciones en productividad y dinámica de plantas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 3-32, December.
  7. Marcelo Ochoa & Patricio Valenzuela, 2004. "Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile," Macroeconomics 0407007, EconWPA.
  8. Elías Albagli I., 2005. "Denomination of the Debt of the Chilean Government: A Risk Management Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(3), pages 55-74, December.
  9. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," Research Department Publications 4333, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2006. "New Keynesian Models For Chile During The Inflation Targeting Regime: A Structural Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 73-95, December.
  11. Calani, Mauricio, 2007. "Testing Globalization-Disinflation Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 4787, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2007.
  12. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Hacia un sistema de seguro social eficaz en América Latina: la importancia de una política fiscal anticíclica," Research Department Publications 4334, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  13. Norbert Fiess, 2004. "Chile's Fiscal Rule," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 348, Econometric Society.

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