IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lsg/lsgwps/wp126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hotelling Rules: Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Antonios Antypas
  • Phoebe Koundouri
  • Nikolaos Kourogenis

Abstract

A model is introduced for the description of natural resources�price paths, which, in contrast to the existing literature, captures non-linear trends by means of a simple trigonometric function. This model is then compared by means of a set of model selection criteria with a quadratic trend model and with a more general one that nests both models. All models are estimated on the price series of eleven major natural resources. In most cases, the trigonometric trend model is selected as the one better �tting the data, providing evidence against the long-run increase of the corresponding natural resource real prices, with interesting policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2013. "Hotelling Rules: Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Prices," GRI Working Papers 126, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/WP126-Hotelling-rules-oscillatory-versus-quadratic-trends-in-natural-resource-prices.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    2. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Slade, Margaret E., 1988. "Grade selection under uncertainty: Least cost last and other anomalies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-205, June.
    5. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    7. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May.
    8. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    9. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    10. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    13. Robert M. Solow & Frederic Y. Wan, 1976. "Extraction Costs in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 359-370, Autumn.
    14. Mueller, Michael J. & Gorin, Daniel R., 1985. "Informative trends in natural resource commodity prices: A comment on slade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-95, March.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
    17. Smith, V Kerry, 1979. "Natural Resource Scarcity: A Statistical Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 423-427, August.
    18. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phoebe Koundouri & Dimitrios Reppas & Ioannis Souliotis, 2015. "A retrospective on The Allocation of Energy Resource by William D. Nordhaus," DEOS Working Papers 1520, Athens University of Economics and Business.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2013. "Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices," DEOS Working Papers 1305, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    2. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2016. "On the Use of Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Prices' Modeling," DEOS Working Papers 1608, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. Nikolaos Kourogenis & Phoebe Koundouri, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Exhaustible Natural Resource Prices," DEOS Working Papers 1022, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    4. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    5. Zaklan, Aleksandar & Abrell, Jan & Neumann, Anne, 2016. "Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 96-103.
    6. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Cees Withagen, 1998. "Untested Hypotheses in Non-Renewable Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 623-634, April.
    8. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
    9. A. Marvasti, 2000. "Resource Characteristics, Extraction Costs, and Optimal Exploitation of Mineral Resources," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(4), pages 395-408, December.
    10. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
    12. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 178-189, September.
    13. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    14. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Preinerstorfer, David, 2017. "Further Results on Size and Power of Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Tests, with an Application to Trend Testing," MPRA Paper 81053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Abhijit Sharma & Kelvin G Balcombe & Iain M Fraser, 2009. "Non-renewable resource prices: Structural breaks and long term trends," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 805-819.
    16. Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
    17. Aleksandar Zaklan & Jan Abrell & Anne Neumann, 2011. "Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1152, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "Testing for common deterministic trend slopes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
    20. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The GRI Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.