An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting
AbstractThe global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.
Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467
Historical gold market Forecasting mineral prices Long-term trend reverting Jump and dip diffusion;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brian Lucey & Raj Aggarwal, 2005.
"Psychological Barriers in Gold Prices,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
- Slade, Margaret E., 1985. "Noninformative trends in natural resource commodity prices: U-shaped price paths exonerated," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-192, June.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005.
"Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?,"
NBER Working Papers
11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
- Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark C. Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Working Papers 05-20, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-75, March.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Rockerbie, Duane W., 1999. "Gold prices and gold production: Evidence for South Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 69-76, June.
- Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
- Michael D. Bordo & Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2006.
"Gold, fiat money and price stability,"
2003-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
- Neill Fortune, J., 1987. "The inflation rate of the price of gold, expected prices and interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 71-82.
- Mueller, Michael J. & Gorin, Daniel R., 1985. "Informative trends in natural resource commodity prices: A comment on slade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-95, March.
- Selvanathan, Saroja & Selvanathan, E. A., 1999. "The effect of the price of gold on its production: a time-series analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 265-275, December.
- S. James Press, 1967. "A Compound Events Model for Security Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 317.
- Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
- Varela, Oscar, 1999. "Futures and realized cash or settle prices for gold, silver, and copper," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138.
- Blose, Laurence E. & Shieh, Joseph C. P., 1995. "The impact of gold price on the value of gold mining stock," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 125-139.
- Batchelor, Roy & Gulley, David, 1995. "Jewellery demand and the price of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-42, March.
- Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
- Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1997. "Gold and commodity prices as leading indicators of inflation: Tests of long-run relationship and predictive performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 475-489.
- Mills, Terence C., 2004. "Statistical analysis of daily gold price data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 559-566.
- Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2009. "When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 181-189, January.
- Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
- Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
- Slade, Margaret E., 1988. "Grade selection under uncertainty: Least cost last and other anomalies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-205, June.
- Kaufmann, Thomas D. & Winters, Richard A., 1989. "The price of gold : A simple model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 309-313, December.
- Blose, Laurence E., 1996. "Gold price risk and the returns on gold mutual funds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 499-513, December.
- Govett, M. H. & Govett, G. J. S., 1982. "Gold demand and supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 84-96, June.
- David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
- Laulajainen, Risto, 1990. "Gold price round the clock : Technical and fundamental issues," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-152, June.
- Jain, Anshul & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 88-93.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.