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Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Laurent Ferrara

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Joëts

Abstract

The role of uncertainty in the global economy is now widely recognized by policy-makers but its effects on the international fi nancial system are less understood. In this paper we assess the impact of uncertainty on the interconnectedness within the international system of equity prices. In this respect, we extend the measure of connectedness put forward by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by allowing for non-linear effects through the estimation of a non-linear Threshold VAR model whose regimes depend on the level on uncertainty. Results clearly show that high uncertainty tends to generate more connectedness among equity indexes of a set of advanced and emerging countries. From an economic policy point of view, this result suggests that in the presence of high uncertainty, an adverse financial shock in a speci fic country is likely to propagate more widely and more strongly to the whole fi nancial system. This result advocates for a close real-time monitoring of uncertainty measures.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Candelon & Laurent Ferrara & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Global Financial Interconnectedness: A nonlinear Assessment of the Uncertainty Channel," Post-Print hal-01667099, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01667099
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    7. Daisuke Ikeda & Mayumi Ojima & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Financial Interconnectedness, Amplification, and Cross-Border Activity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    8. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    9. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2022. "Higher Moments Actually Matter: Spillover Approach for Case of CESEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-34, December.
    10. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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