IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/wpaper/53153.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07

Author

Listed:
  • Edward N. Gamber (CBO)

Abstract

Private-sector forecasters consistently missed the decline in long-term nominal interest rates over the past three decades, estimating rates that were higher (and, in some cases, much higher) than what actually occurred. This analysis examines whether bond-market participants anticipated with greater accuracy the decline in long-term rates. To explore that issue, the Congressional Budget Office compared the accuracy and bias in forecasts of long-term interest rates from the Blue Chip consensus with forecasts based on information derived from the

Suggested Citation

  • Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:53153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/workingpaper/53153-interestrateswp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    7. Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 16-33.
    8. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    10. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    13. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    14. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
    15. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    16. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    3. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    4. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    6. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
    7. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
    8. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 297-311, June.
    9. Giulio Tarditi, 2011. "Affine Term Structure Constraints on Euribor data," Department of Economics University of Siena 613, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    10. Lelo de Larrea Alejandra, 2020. "Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model," Working Papers 2020-01, Banco de México.
    11. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    12. Frank J. Fabozzi & Francesco A. Fabozzi & Diana Tunaru, 2023. "A comparison of multi-factor term structure models for interbank rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 323-356, July.
    13. Scott Joslin & Anh Le, 2021. "Interest Rate Volatility and No-Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7391-7416, December.
    14. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
    16. Elizondo Rocío, 2013. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico Using an Affine Model," Working Papers 2013-03, Banco de México.
    17. Jordan, James V. & Mansi, Sattar A., 2003. "Term structure estimation from on-the-run Treasuries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1487-1509, August.
    18. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    19. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    20. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:53153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbogvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.