IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v3(612)y2017i3(612)p147-172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Manamani SAHOO

    (University of Hyderabad, India)

Abstract

This paper first estimate financial conditions index (FCI) for India and then examines the empirical performance of the financial conditions index (FCI) to predict inflation and GDP growth. For optimal coverage of all major set of indicators, those which are determining the Indian economies, financial conditions, so we have broken financial conditions index into four sub-indices including major key indicator. The sub –indices of FCI include (i) short term rate of interest (CMR), (ii) exchange rate, (iii) housing price index (iv) FDI total inflow, each with equal weights. Based on granger causality and correlation test with quarterly data, the finding of this paper is the financial condition index is able to predict inflation bitterly.

Suggested Citation

  • Manamani SAHOO, 2017. "Financial conditions index (FCI), inflation and growth: Some evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 147-172, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:147-172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1300.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1300&rid=128
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jun-ichi Shinkai & Akira Kohsaka, 2010. "Financial Linkages and Business Cycles of Japan: An Analysis Using Financial Conditions Index," OSIPP Discussion Paper 10E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 628, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. Sónia Costa, 2000. "Monetary conditions index," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zulfiqar Hyder & Muhammad Mazhar Khan, 2007. "Monetary Conditions Index for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 165-190.
    8. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé & Thompson, Kirsten & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2018. "Comparing the forecasting ability of financial conditions indices: The case of South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 245-259.
    10. Debuque-Gonzales , Margarita & Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro, 2013. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 333, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
    12. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    14. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "Capital flows and their implications for monetary and financial stability: the experience of Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 403-421, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Tobias Olweny & Mambo Chiluwe, 2012. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Private Sector Investment in Kenya," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 1-9.
    16. Weibo Xiong, 2012. "Constructing the Monetary Conditions Index for China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 7(3), pages 373-406, September.
    17. Kenneth Kuttner & Patricia Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the United States: some answers and further questions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 433-443, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Miss Nombulelo Gumata & Mr Nir Klein & Mr Eliphas Ndou, 2012. "A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Working Papers 5119, South African Reserve Bank.
    19. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    20. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit is Due," IMF Working Papers 2008/161, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mehtap Kesriyeli & I.Ilhan Kocaker, 1999. "Monetary Conditions Index : A Monetary Policy Indicator For Turkey," Discussion Papers 9908, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    22. Caesar P Lack, 2003. "A financial conditions index for Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 398-413, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19.
    24. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    25. Céline Gauthier & Fuchun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Staff Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    26. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2013. "Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    27. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    28. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    30. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    31. Mayes, David G. & Viren , Matti, 2002. "Financial Conditions Indexes," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 55(4), pages 521-550.
    32. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Jan Przystupa, 2002. "The exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism," NBP Working Papers 25, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    34. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2016. "Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India," IMF Working Papers 2016/167, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Giang Ho & Miss Yinqiu Lu, 2013. "A Financial Conditions Index for Poland," IMF Working Papers 2013/252, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Massimo Suardi, 2001. "EMU and asymetries in the monetary policy transmission," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 157, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    37. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    38. William English & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Edda Zoli, 2005. "Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 228-52, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    2. Margarita Debuque-Gonzales & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(2), pages 83-117, Summer.
    3. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    5. Borg Ian & Micallef Brian, 2018. "Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 89-105, September.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    8. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    10. Thanda Sithole & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Modeste Some, 2017. "The role of financial conditions in transmitting external shocks to South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 36-56.
    11. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2018. "Can an Energy Futures Index Predict US Stock Market Index Movements?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 230-240.
    12. Xiaochun Jiang & Wei Sun & Peng Su & Ting Wang, 2019. "The Synergy of Financial Volatility between China and the United States and the Risk Conduction Paths," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, August.
    13. Umit Bulut, 2016. "Do Financial Conditions have a Predictive Power on Inflation in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 621-628.
    14. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, H-K. & McAleer, M.J., 2014. "A Tourism Financial Conditions Index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2014-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    15. Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    16. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    17. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    18. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    19. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A Tourism Financial Conditions Index for Tourism Finance," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, September.
    20. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:147-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.