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Regime-Switching Cointegration

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Author Info

  • Markus Jochmann

    ()
    (Department of Economics, New~~#bad~~#badcastle University)

  • Gary Koop

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1125.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1125

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Keywords: Bayesian; Markov switching; structural breaks; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
  2. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  3. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2006. "Bayesian Inference in a Cointegrating Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 06/2, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  4. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Reexamining the consumption-wealth relationship: the role of model uncertainty," Staff Reports 202, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Geweke, John, 1996. "Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 121-146, November.
  6. Paap, R. & van Dijk, H.K., 2002. "Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to US consumption and income," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-42, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-14, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  8. Gary Koop & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Efficient Posterior Simulation for Cointegrated Models with Priors On the Cointegration Space," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/13, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Apr 2006.
  9. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2008. "Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  11. Martin, G.M., 1998. "U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  12. Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February.
  13. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 664-703, October.
  14. Andrade, Philippe & Bruneau, Catherine & Gregoir, Stephane, 2005. "Testing for the cointegration rank when some cointegrating directions are changing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-310, February.
  15. Beyer, Andreas & Haug, Alfred A. & Dewald, William G., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
  16. Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 301-340, April.
  17. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2009. "Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy," Working Papers 0919, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  18. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Strachan, Rodney W. & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of the error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 307-325, December.
  20. Strachan, Rodney W, 2003. "Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 185-95, January.
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