Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?
AbstractWe show that the robustness of an inverse relationship between the real interest rate and real oil price depends crucially on how the real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the oil price falls with an unexpected rise in either U.S. or international ex-ante real interest rates. When the ex-post real interest rate is used, the oil price only falls with rises to short-term rates (3months or less). Additionally, the response of the oil price to long-term ex-ante real interest rates must include the period through the mid-2000s for the inverse relationship to appear. In contrast, the oil price consistently falls with unexpected rises in short-term real interest rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the oil price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. and international real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, oil prices have become more responsive to long-term real interest rates over time.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Oil price; Real interest rate; VAR; Hotelling; Storage;
Other versions of this item:
- Arora, Vipin & Tanner, Matthew, 2011. "How important are real interest rates for oil prices?," MPRA Paper 35883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Torben Hendricks, 2010.
"Global liquidity and commodity prices-a cointegrated VAR approach for OECD countries,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 227-242.
- Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 898, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices – A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0102, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Vipin Arora, 2011.
"Arbitrage and the Price of Oil,"
ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics
2011-535, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
- Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
- Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, 09.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011.
"Forecasting the Price of Oil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009.
"Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
- Christopher Reicher & Johannes Utlaut, 2010. "The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates," Kiel Working Papers 1637, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
- Shi, Shuping & Arora, Vipin, 2012.
"An application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 469-472.
- Shu-ping Shi & Vipin Arora, 2011. "An Application Of Models Of Speculative Behaviour To Oil Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2011-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Vipin Arora, 2011.
"Asset Value, Interest Rates and Oil Price Volatility,"
ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics
2011-536, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Vipin Arora, 2011. "Asset Value, Interest Rates and Oil Price Volatility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(s1), pages 45-55, 09.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.