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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices

Author

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  • Carolina Arteaga cabrales
  • Joan Camilo Granados Castro
  • Jair Ojeda Joya

Abstract

In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity prices is essential to understand the dynamics of the balance of payments in Colombia. The analysis is based on structural VAR models, we identify monetary policy shocks following [Kim, 1999, 2003] upon quarterly data for commodity prices and their fundamentals for the period 1980q1 to 2010q3. Our results show that commodity prices overshoot their long run equilibrium in response to a contractionary shock in the US monetary policy and, in contrast with literature, the response of the individual prices considered is stronger than what has been found in aggregate indices. Additionally, it is found that the monetary policy explains a substantial share of the fluctuations in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Joan Camilo Granados Castro & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices," Borradores de Economia 9199, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009199
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    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 4734, Banco de la Republica.
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    5. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    6. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    7. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jahantigh , Forough & Rahmi Ghasemabadi , Mohammad & Jalali , Omolbanin, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shock on the Price of Storable Goods: A Case Study of Food," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(4), pages 471-490, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Prices; Monetary Policy; Overshooting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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