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The Chinese Stock Market: A Casino with 'Buffer Zones'?

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Author Info

  • Eric Girardin
  • Zhenya Liu

Abstract

This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the 'Casino' character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of 'luck' does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies.

Volume (Year): 1 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 57-70

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:1:y:2003:i:1:p:57-70

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Related research

Keywords: Markov-switching; Chinese Stock Market;

References

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  1. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Puzzles in the Chinese stock market," International Finance Discussion Papers 619, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. repec:wop:cercwp:97_7 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  5. Chen, Gongmeng & Kwok, Chuck C. Y. & Rui, Oliver M., 2001. "The day-of-the-week regularity in the stock markets of China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-163, April.
  6. Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
  7. Sugato Chakravarty & Asani Sarkar & Lifan Wu, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation, and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Research Paper 9820, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Lan Yisheng, 1997. "The Stock Market in China: Problems and Prospects for Domestic and Foreign Investment," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-07, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
  9. Gordon, Roger H. & Li, Wei, 2003. "Government as a discriminating monopolist in the financial market: the case of China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 283-312, February.
  10. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
  11. Sjoo, Boo & Zhang, Jianhua, 2000. "Market segmentation and information diffusion in China's stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 421-438, December.
  12. Tsui, Albert K. & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "Constant conditional correlation in a bivariate GARCH model: evidence from the stock markets of China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 503-509.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Chen Xiang LIU & Mohamed El Hedi AROURI, 2008. "Stock craze: an empirical analysis of PER in Chinese equity market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17.
  3. Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2013. "Macro fundamentals as a source of stock market volatility in China: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 59-68.
  4. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2007. "The financial integration of China: New evidence on temporally aggregated data for the A-share market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 354-371.
  5. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Guo, Hong & Yang, Jiong, 2012. "Subscribing to Transparency," TSE Working Papers 12-351, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Nov 2013.

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