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Macro fundamentals as a source of stock market volatility in China: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

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  • Girardin, Eric
  • Joyeux, Roselyne

Abstract

In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by Engle et al. (2009) and Engle and Rangel (2008) to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with speculative factors. We show that the Chinese A-share market presented speculative characteristics before WTO entry in late 2001. However, after that date macroeconomic fundamentals and their volatility played an increasing role in the A-share market, especially CPI inflation, at the expense of speculative factors, proxied by volume. The B-share market has shown speculative characteristics since it was opened to domestic investors in 2001. However the disconnect of long-run stock market volatility from real economic activity in China is particularly noteworthy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 34 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 59-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:59-68

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: MIDAS; Conditional variance; China;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC84138, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
  2. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-102.

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