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Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes

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  • McCrorie, J. Roderick
  • Chambers, Marcus J.

Abstract

This paper provides a discussion of the developments in econometric modelling that are designed to deal with the problem of spurious Granger causality relationships that can arise from temporal aggregation.We outline the distortional e ects of using discrete time models that explicitly depend on the unit of time and outline a remedy of constructing timeinvariant discrete time models via a structural continuous time model.In an application to testing for money-income causality, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating exact temporal aggregation restrictions on the discrete time data.We do this by conducting causality tests in discrete time models that: (a) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions exactly; (b) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions approximately; and (c) do not impose these restrictions at all.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 132 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 311-336

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:132:y:2006:i:2:p:311-336

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  25. McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2000. "Deriving The Exact Discrete Analog Of A Continuous Time System," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 998-1015, December.
  26. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  2. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
  3. Jewitt, Giles & Roderick McCrorie, J., 2005. "Computing estimates of continuous time macroeconometric models on the basis of discrete data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 397-416, April.
  4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:61:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14.
  6. Petrović, Ljiljana & Dimitrijević, Sladjana, 2012. "Causality with finite horizon of the past in continuous time," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1219-1223.
  7. Chambers, M.J. & McCrorie, J.R., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Exchange Rate Models with Unobservable Fundamentals," Discussion Paper 2004-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Arie ten Cate, 2004. "Refinement of the partial adjustment model using continuous-time econometrics," CPB Discussion Paper 41, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. Ehlers, Stefan & Gürtler, Marc & Olboeter, Sven, 2010. "Financial crises and information transfer: An empirical analysis of the lead-lag relationship between equity and CDS iTraxx Indices," Working Papers IF34V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  10. Chih‐Nan Chen & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1507-1533, December.

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