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Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes

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  • McCrorie, J. Roderick
  • Chambers, Marcus J.

Abstract

This paper provides a discussion of the developments in econometric modelling that are designed to deal with the problem of spurious Granger causality relationships that can arise from temporal aggregation.We outline the distortional e ects of using discrete time models that explicitly depend on the unit of time and outline a remedy of constructing timeinvariant discrete time models via a structural continuous time model.In an application to testing for money-income causality, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating exact temporal aggregation restrictions on the discrete time data.We do this by conducting causality tests in discrete time models that: (a) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions exactly; (b) impose the temporal aggregation restrictions approximately; and (c) do not impose these restrictions at all.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 132 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 311-336

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:132:y:2006:i:2:p:311-336

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  2. Boudjellaba, B. & Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1991. "Testing Causality Between Two Vectors in Multivariate Arma Models," Cahiers de recherche 9119, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  24. Marcus J. Chambers & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2006. "Identification And Estimation Of Exchange Rate Models With Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 573-582, 05.
  25. Harvey, A. C. & Stock, James H., 1989. "Estimating integrated higher-order continuous time autoregressions with an application to money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 319-336, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14.
  2. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
  3. Petrović, Ljiljana & Dimitrijević, Sladjana, 2012. "Causality with finite horizon of the past in continuous time," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1219-1223.
  4. Chih‐Nan Chen & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1507-1533, December.
  5. Arie ten Cate, 2004. "Refinement of the partial adjustment model using continuous-time econometrics," CPB Discussion Paper 41, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  6. Diez de los Rios, Antonio & Sentana, Enrique, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Marcus J. Chambers & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2006. "Identification And Estimation Of Exchange Rate Models With Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 573-582, 05.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:61:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Ehlers, Stefan & Gürtler, Marc & Olboeter, Sven, 2010. "Financial crises and information transfer: An empirical analysis of the lead-lag relationship between equity and CDS iTraxx Indices," Working Papers IF34V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  10. Jewitt, Giles & Roderick McCrorie, J., 2005. "Computing estimates of continuous time macroeconometric models on the basis of discrete data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 397-416, April.

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