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Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks

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  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

    ()
    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • José Eduardo Vera-Valdés

    ()
    (Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

The concept of Granger-Causality (GC) is widely used to draw inference concerning causality in applied economics. Stationary series are the term of reference used in GC testing, which is generally studied by means of a standard Dickey-Fuller test. We prove that, when the Data Generating Process (DGP) of the variables is either Broken-Trend Stationary (BTS) or Broken-Mean Stationary (BMS), correct inference can not be drawn from a standard Granger-Causality test and may identify inexistent causal relationships, even if the former variables are differenced. Asymptotic and finite-sample evidence in this sense is provided.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
Issue (Month): 61 ()
Pages: 1-14

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c20013

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  1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  2. McCrorie, J. Roderick & Chambers, Marcus J., 2006. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 311-336, June.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
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  7. repec:gua:wpaper:em200601 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Foresti, Pasquale, 2006. "Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth," MPRA Paper 2962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  9. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Andersson, Jonas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in the presence of measurement errors," Discussion Papers 2004/11, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  11. Mehl, Arnaud, 2000. "Unit root tests with double trend breaks and the 1990s recession in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-379, December.
  12. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:47:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Gold, Oil, and Stocks," Papers 1308.0210, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
  2. Felipe J. Fonseca & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "Revenue Elasticity of the Main federal Taxes in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(1), pages 89-111.

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