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Spurious regression and econometric trends

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Author Info
Antonio E. Noriega
School of Economics, University of Guanajuato
Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria
School of Economics, University of Guanajuato

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Abstract

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of different types of nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent and explanatory variables is deterministic as well as stochastic. In particular, we derive the order in probability of the t-statistic in a spurious regression equation under a variety of empirically relevant data generation processes, and show that the spurious regression phenomenon is present in all cases when at least one of the variables behaves in a nonstationary way. Simulation experiments confirm our asymptotic results

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 151.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:151

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Related research
Keywords: Spurious regression; trends; unit roots; trend stationarity; structural breaks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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