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Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries

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  • Gillman, Max
  • Nakov, Anton

Abstract

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate decrease. Shifts in the model’s credit sector productivity cause shifts in the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth. Applied to two accession countries, Hungary and Poland, a VAR system is estimated for each that incorporates endogenously determined multiple structural breaks. Results indicate Granger causality positively from money to inflation and negatively from inflation to growth for both Hungary and Poland, as suggested by the model, although there is some feedback to money for Poland. Three structural breaks are found for each country that are linked to changes in velocity trends, and to the breaks found in the other country.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4845.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4845

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Keywords: Granger causality; growth; inflation; structural breaks; transition; VAR; velocity;

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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2013. "Debt, Inflation and Growth - Robust Estimation of Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 4508, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2012. "Bank credit and economic growth," MPRA Paper 42664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
  3. John Hudson & Paul Mosley, 2007. "Aid Volatility, Policy and Development," Working Papers 2007015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007.
  4. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
  5. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  6. Balázs Égert & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Evžen Kočenda & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2006. "Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 85-103, June.
  7. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO, 2012. "Financial Management and Economic Growth: The European Countries Experience," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 15(2), pages 261-268, December.
  8. Polterovich, Victor, 2006. "Снижение Инфляции Не Должно Быть Главной Целью Экономической Политики Правительства России
    [Decreasing Inflation Shou
    ," MPRA Paper 22064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Endogenous Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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