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Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect

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Author Info
Max Gillman ()
Mark N. Harris
László Mátyás

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Abstract

The paper presents a monetary model of endogenous growth and specifies an econometric model consistent with it. The economic model suggests a negative inflation-growth effect, and one that is stronger at lower levels of inflation. Empirical evaluation of the model is based on a large panel of OECD and APEC member countries over the years 1961–1997. The hypothesized negative inflation effect is found comprehensively for the OECD countries to be significant and, as in the theory, to increase marginally as the inflation rate falls. For APEC countries, the results from using instrumental variables also show significant evidence of a similar behavior. The nature of the inflation-growth profile and differences in this between the regions are interpreted with the credit production technology of the model in a way not possible with a standard cash-only economy. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-003-0186-0
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 149-167
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:1:p:149-167

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Related research
Keywords: Endogenous growth; panel data; inflation; non-linearity; O42; C23; C51; E13;

Cited by:
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  1. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Endogenous Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "A Comparison of Exchange Economies within a Monetary Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Tax Evasion and Growth: a Banking Approach," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0806, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peter Funk & Bettina Kromen, 2006. "Short-term price rigidity in an endogenous growth model: Non-Superneutrality and a non-vertical long-term Phillips-curve," Working Paper Series in Economics 29, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  8. Katsuya Ito, 2009. "The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 220-227, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. " Inflation, Financial Development and Human Capital-Based Endogenous Growth: an Explanation of Ten Empirical Findings," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0703, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrea Vaona & Stefano Schiavo, 2006. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Inflation on Growth," Kiel Working Papers 1286, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2009. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Max Gillman & Oleg Yerokhin, 2005. "Ramsey-Friedman Optimality with Banking Time," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1137-1137. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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