The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries

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The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries

Author Info

Gillman, Max () (Cardiff Business School)
Harris, Mark N.

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Abstract

The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 transition countries over the 1990-2003 period; it uses a fixed effects, full-information maximum likelihood, panel approach to account for possible bias from correlations among the unobserved effects and the observed country heterogeniety. The results find a strong, robust, negative effect of inflation on growth, and one that declines in magnitude as the inflation rate increases. These results include a role for a normalized money demand, by itself and as part of a nonlinearity in the inflation-growth effect. And these results derive from both a baseline single equation model and one that is then expanded into a three equation simultaneous system. This allows for possible simultaneity bias in the baseline model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/25.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Economics of Transition
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/25

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Paper
- Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2009. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth - Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0912, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-11-11 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2008-11-11 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2008-11-11 (Monetary Economics)
NEP-TRA-2008-11-11 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," MNB Working Papers 2007/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
- Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 8178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 2783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 265, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," CRSP working papers 526, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0402, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
- Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Endogenous Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222, January.
Other versions:
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effects of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_021, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
William Greene, 2004. "The behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator of limited dependent variable models in the presence of fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 98-119, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
P. J. Dawson, 2003. "Financial development and growth in economies in transition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 833-836, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Atish R. Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2004. "Granger causality of the inflation-growth mirror in accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 653-681, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Technical Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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