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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

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Author Info

  • Szilard Benk

    () (Hungarian Central Bank)

  • Max Gillman

    () (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Michal Kejak

    () (The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University (CERGE EI))

Abstract

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path, which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes, and again around 2003, results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 0923.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0923

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Keywords: business cycle; credit shocks; velocity and volatility;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. " Financial intermediation and the international business cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CDMA Working Paper Series 1108, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CEU Working Papers 2012_13, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 23 Jul 2012.

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