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Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money

Author

Listed:
  • Davies, Ceri
  • Gillman, Max

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Kejak, Michal

Abstract

The paper presents a human-capital-based endogenous growth, cash-in-advance economy with endogenous velocity where exchange credit is produced in a decentralized banking sector, and money is supplied stochastically by the central bank. From this it derives an exact functional form for a general equilibrium Taylor rule . The inflation coefficient is always greater than one when the velocity of money exceeds one,velocity growth enters the equilibrium condition as a separate variable. The paper then successfully estimates the magnitude of the coefficient on inflation from 1000 samples of Monte Carlo simulated data. This shows that it would be spurious to conclude that the central bank has a reaction function with a strong response to inflation in a Taylor principle sense, since it is only meeting fiscal needs through the inflation tax. The paper also estimates several deliberately misspecified models to show how an inflation coefficient of less than one can result from model misspecification. An inflation coefficient greater than one holds theoretically along the balanced growth path equilibrium, making it a sharply robust principle based on the economy s underlying structural parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Davies, Ceri & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/20
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    2. Olatunji Abdul Shobande, 2019. "Effect of Real Economy Predictors on Monetary Policy Responses: Testing Model Fits For OLS, IV and IV-GMM Estimators," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(3), pages 90-96, September.
    3. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    4. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; velocity; forward-looking; misspecification bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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