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Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach

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Author Info
Gillman, Max () (Cardiff Business School)
Kejak, Michal

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Abstract

Output growth, investment and the real interest rate are all found empirically to be negatively affected by inflation. But a seeming puzzle arises of opposite Tobin-like inflation effects because theory indicates a negative Tobin effect when investment falls and a positive Tobin effect when the real interest rate rises. We define inflation's Tobin effect more specifically in terms of the effect on the capital to effective labor ratio and resolve the puzzle by showing the simultaneous occurrence of all three negative inflation effects, on growth, investment and real interest rates, in a model calibrated to postwar US data. Here, investment along with consumption are exchanged for within a monetary endogenous growth economy with human capital and a decentralized credit-producing sector.

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File URL: http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/E2008_18.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/18.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: Oct 2008
Publication status: Forthcoming in Economica
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/18

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; investment; growth; Tobin;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Clark, Jeffrey A, 1984. "Estimation of Economies of Scale in Banking Using a Generalized Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2003. "A Revised Tobin Effect from Inflation: Relative Input Price and Capital Ratio Realignments, USA and UK, 1959-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 439-450, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "The Financial Firm: Production with Monetary and Nonmonetary Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 859-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. R. Anton Braun & Max Gillman, 2006. "Banking in General Equilibrium with an Application to Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-412, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  8. Smith, R. Todd & van Egteren, Henry, 2005. "Inflation, investment and economic performance: The role of internal financing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1283-1303, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-66, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glen, 2006. "Money Demand in General Equilibrium Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Role of a Variable Interest Elasticity," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
  13. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "Inflation and Investment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 375-397, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Byrne, Joseph P. & Davis, E. Philip, 2004. "Permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty and investment in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 271-277, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mansoorian, Arman & Mohsin, Mohammed, 2006. "On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 296-313, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  2. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "Consumption Velocity in a Cash Costly-Credit Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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