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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

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  • Benk, Szilárd
  • Gillman, Max
  • Kejak, Michal

Abstract

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path, which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes, and again around 2003, results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7544.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7544

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Keywords: business cycle; credit shocks; velocity; Volatility;

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References

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  1. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, 01.
  2. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  3. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, 09.
  4. Hromcová, Jana, 2008. "Learning-or-doing in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2826-2853, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Parantap Basu & Max Gillman & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Inflation, Human Capital and Tobin's q," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1017, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  2. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the international business cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CDMA Working Paper Series 201108, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Davies, Ceri & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  4. Francisco Callado & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero, 2012. "Openness and Technology Diffusion in Payment Systems: The Case of NAFTA," Working Papers wpdea1206, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

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