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On the Typical Spectral Shape of an Economic Variable

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  • Daniel Levy

    (Bar-Ilan & Emory)

  • Hashem Dezhbakhsh

    (Emory)

Abstract

In a classical article, Granger (1966) argued that the levels of most economic time series have spectra that exhibit a smooth declining shape with considerable power at very low frequencies. He termed it "the typical spectral shape of an economic variable." Granger's assertion has not been examined systematically with international data. We estimate output level spectra for 58 countries, divided into developed, high- income developing, and low-income developing groups. We find the shapes of the estimated spectra to be strikingly similar to Granger's typical shape, particularly for the developed countries.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0402/0402017.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402017.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402017

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win 98; to print on Any printer; pages: 17; figures: Figures are included
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Spectral Analysis; Spectral Shape; Power Spectrum; Frequency Domain Analysis; Typical Spectral Shape; Output Level; OECD; Developing Countries; Spectral Peak; Common Features;

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References

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  1. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
  3. Daniel Levy & Haiwei Chen, 2005. "Estimates of the Aggregate Quarterly Capital Stock for the Post- War U.S. Economy," Others 0505008, EconWPA, revised 16 May 2005.
  4. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  6. Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.
  7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel Levy, 2005. "Output, Capital, and Labor in the Short, and Long-Run," Development and Comp Systems 0505012, EconWPA.
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
  11. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  13. Granger, C.W.J. & Watson, Mark W., 1984. "Time series and spectral methods in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 979-1022 Elsevier.
  14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-46, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2009. "A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "The Typical Spectral Shape of an Economic Variable: A Visual Guide with 100 Examples," MPRA Paper 53584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Imbs, Jean & Mauro, Paolo, 2007. "Pooling Risk Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 6461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Crowley , Patrick & Maraun , Douglas & Mayes , David, 2006. "How hard is the euro are core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland.
  5. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2004. "International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence," Macroeconomics 0402016, EconWPA.
  6. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  7. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  8. Leon, Costas & Eeckels, Bruno, 2009. "A Dynamic Correlation Approach of the Swiss Tourism Income," MPRA Paper 15215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2005, Bank of Finland.

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