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Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money

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Author Info

  • Ceri Davies

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Max Gillman

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School and Institute of Economics Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Michal Kejak

    ()
    (The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University (CERGE EI))

Abstract

The paper presents a human-capital-based endogenous growth, cash- in-advance economy with endogenous velocity where exchange credit is produced in a decentralized banking sector, and money is supplied stochastically by the central bank. From this it derives an exact functional form for a general equilibrium 'Taylor rule'. The inflation coefficient is always greater than one when the velocity of money exceeds one; velocity growth enters the equilibrium condition as a separate variable. The paper then successfully estimates the magnitude of the coefficient on inflation from 1000 samples of Monte Carlo simulated data. This shows that it would be spurious to conclude that the central bank has a reaction function with a strong response to inflation in a 'Taylor principle' sense, since it is only meeting fiscal needs through the inflation tax. The paper also estimates several deliberately misspecified models to show how an inflation coefficient of less than one can result from model misspecification. An inflation coefficient greater than one holds theoretically along the balanced growth path equilibrium, making it a sharply robust principle based on the economy's underlying structural parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1225.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1225

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Keywords: Taylor rule; velocity; forward-looking; misspecification bias;

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References

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