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A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004

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  • Benk, Szilárd
  • Gillman, Max
  • Kejak, Michal

Abstract

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path, which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes, and again around 2003, results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 765-779

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:765-779

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Volatility Business cycle Credit shocks Velocity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Basu, Parantap & Gillman, Max & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Inflation, human capital and Tobin's q," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1057-1074.
  2. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CEU Working Papers 2012_13, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 23 Jul 2012.
  3. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Francisco Callado & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero, 2012. "Openness and Technology Diffusion in Payment Systems: The Case of NAFTA," Working Papers wpdea1206, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

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