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Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects

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  • Benk, Szilárd
  • Gillman, Max

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Kejak, Michal

Abstract

The paper constructs credit shocks using data and the solution to a monetary business cycle model. The model extends the standard stochastic cash-in-advance economy by including the production of credit that serves as an alternative to money in exchange. Shocks to goods productivity, money, and credit productivity are constructed robustly using the solution to the model and quarterly US data on key variables. The contribution of the credit shock to US GDP movements is found, and this is interpreted in terms of changes in banking legislation during the US financial deregulation era. The results put forth the credit shock as a candidate shock that matters in determining GDP, including in the sense of Uhlig (2003).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2005/13.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Dynamics
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2005/13

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Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers
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Keywords: Business cycle; credit shocks; financial deregulation;

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References

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  1. Mark G. Guzman, 2003. "Slow but steady progress toward financial deregulation," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1, 6-9, 12.
  2. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glenn, 2003. "Money demand in a banking time economy," HWWA Discussion Papers 254, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  3. Parkin, Michael, 1988. "A method for determining whether parameters in aggregative models are structural," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 215-252, January.
  4. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  5. Ingram, Beth F. & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1997. "Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 435-456, December.
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  8. Allen N. Berger, 2002. "The economic effects of technological progress: evidence from the banking industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
  10. Harald Uhlig, 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "The real effects of U.S. banking deregulation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 111-128.
  12. Li, Victor E, 2000. "Household Credit and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 335-56, August.
  13. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  14. Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2004. "Occasionally Binding Collateral Constraints in RBC Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
  16. Jayaratne, Jith & Strahan, Philip E, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-70, August.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  18. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "The Demand for Bank Reserves and Other Monetary Aggregates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 518-533, July.
  19. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H, 2001. "Bank Intermediation over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 876-99, November.
  20. Michal Kejak & Szilard Benk & Max Gillman, 2004. "Credit Shocks in a Monetary Business Cycle," 2004 Meeting Papers 133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  22. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
  23. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott (), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
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