The Effect of Inflation on Growth - Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries

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The Effect of Inflation on Growth - Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries

Author Info

Max Gillman () (Cardiff Business School Cardiff University, Research Associate, Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
Mark N. Harris () (Monash University Australia)

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Abstract

The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 transition countries over the 1990-2003 period; it uses a fixed effects panel approach to account for possible bias from correlations among the unobserved effects and the observed country heterogeniety. The results find a strong, robust, negative effect on growth of inflation or its standard deviation, and one that appears to decline in magnitude as the inflation rate increases, as seen for OECD countries. And the results include a role for a normalized money demand in affecting growth, as well as for a convergence variable, a trade variable and a government share variable. And robustness of the baseline single equation model is examined by expanding this into a three equation simultaneous system of output growth, inflation and money demand that allows for possible simultaneity bias in the baseline model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 0912.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0912

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Paper
- Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-08-08 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2009-08-08 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2009-08-08 (Monetary Economics)
NEP-TRA-2009-08-08 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," MNB Working Papers 2007/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
- Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 8178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 2783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 265, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century," CRSP working papers 526, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0402, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
- Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Endogenous Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222, January.
Other versions:
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effects of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_021, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
William Greene, 2004. "The behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator of limited dependent variable models in the presence of fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 98-119, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
P. J. Dawson, 2003. "Financial development and growth in economies in transition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(13), pages 833-836, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Atish R. Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2004. "Granger causality of the inflation-growth mirror in accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 653-681, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Technical Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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