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Inflation and breaks: the validity of the Dickey-Fuller test

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Author Info
Manuel Gomez () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)
Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)

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Abstract

This article proves the asymptotic efficiency of the Dickey Fuller (DF) test when the Data Generating Process of the variable under consideration is in fact mean stationary with breaks. Monte Carlo simulations show that asymptotic properties remain valid for sample sizes of practical interest. We illustrate its performance by studying inflation rate series, a variable that should be stationary if the monetary authority follows an effective inflation targeting regime: shocks are short-lived, therefore, inflation fluctuates randomly around pre-specified targets.

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Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato in its series School of Economics Working Papers with number EM200601.

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Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200601

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Postal: UCEA-Campus Marfil, Fracc. I, El Establo, Guanajuato GTO 36250
Phone: [+52 473] 735 2925 x-2925
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Related research
Keywords: Dickey-Fuller test; Mean Stationary Process; Structural Breaks.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Steve Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Behaviour of Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests Under Trend Misspecification," Econometrics 0311008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Antonio Montanes & Andreu Sanso, 2001. "The Dickey-Fuller Test Family and Changes in the Seasonal Pattern," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 61, pages 06, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Lee, Young-Sook & Newbold, Paul, 2004. "Spurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 257-262, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken-Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  8. Sabate, Marcela & Gadea, Maria Dolores & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2003. "PPP and structural breaks. The peseta-sterling rate, 50 years of a floating regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 613-627, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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