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Inflation Targeting and the Stationarity of Inflation: New Results from an ESTAR Unit Root Test

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  • Andros Gregoriou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that have adopted inflation targeting. Unlike previous studies we utilize a non-linear mean reverting adjustment mechanism for inflation and we discover that although deviations of inflation from the target can exhibit a region of non-stationary behavior, overall they are stationary indicating successful targeting implementation.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2005_10.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2005_10

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  1. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  2. Christos Ioannidis & David A. Peel & Michael J. Peel, 2003. "The Time Series Properties of Financial Ratios: Lev Revisited," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 699-714.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 1999. "Inflation zone targeting," Working Paper Series 0008, European Central Bank.
  4. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
  5. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society.
  6. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  7. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics in the US -A Nonlinear Perspective," FMG Discussion Papers dp601, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," Working Papers 2009/2, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  3. Habibullah, M.S. & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Testing nonlinear convergence in Malaysia,1965-2003," MPRA Paper 12110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, . "The Long Run Relationship Between Stock Prices And Goods Prices: New Evidence From Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 2008_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  5. Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of inflation differentials in the euro area: Evidence from a threshold unit root test," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 133-144.
  6. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 90-95, January.
  7. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
  8. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  9. Bertram, Philip & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stahl, Gerhard, 2011. "About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-469, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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